In the NFL playoffs, the best teams usually win and what is witnessed is that the better teams are beating bad teams based on a few simple items of fundamental handicapping. Identifying the best team is not always easy, but if you can, you can consistently win in the playoff weekends. There are a large number of stats to look at including straight-up record, core statistics (points, rushing, passing, etc) and non-core stats (sacks, punting yardage, etc).

The NFL playoffs are here, and that means one thing: It's time to for gamblers to study the lines and place some bets to make the football games a little more interesting and to win a little cash along the way.

Saturday and Sunday (January 5th and 6th, respectively) are the days you’ll be hauling in the cash, thanks to the Washington Redskins, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buc's.

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

Saturday, January 12

Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahowks, 4.30pm on Fox
Seattle ended the Washington Redskins remarkable run to the playoffs with a 35-14 victory last Saturday while the Green Bay Packers rested at home awaiting the winner.  Despite the lopsided score, the Redskins had a 14-13 lead with just over 11 minutes remaining in the game, so the Seahawks got nothing in the way of a rest in that game.  Read more

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots, 8pm on CBS


Sunday, January 13
San Diego Charges vs Indianapolis Colts, 1pm on CBS
The San Diego Chargers won their first playoff game in 13 seasons when they defeated the Tennessee Titans 16-7 in the first round. As a result the Chargers will head to Indianapolis to take on the current Super Bowl champions, and often overlooked this year, Colts. Read more

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys, 4.30pm on Fox

Sunday, January 20
New York Giants vs Greenbay Packers
Everyone knows what assuming does, and it’s no exception here.  For most of the season I felt it was going to be the Dallas Cowboys vs. the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.  I at least know I’m half wrong now, thanks to the Giants marching into Texas Stadium and defeating the Cowboys on their home turf. Read more

San Diego Chargers vs New England Patriots

Superbowl XLII: New England Patriots at New York Giants
The 2008 Super Bowl is here, and it pits the undefeated New England Patriots against the New York Giants, who finished the season, including the playoffs, winning ten road games in a row.  Just like any big game, this game isn’t without its own personal storylines and questions.  Below are some of the more important ones surrounding the big game. Read more

NFL Football playoff Handicapping Stats

In the playoffs, we have reliable data from 16 games worth of stats to evaluate. As stated earlier, the best teams step up in January and there are fewer situational letdowns and surprises. The teams with the advantage in key statistical areas usually win and cover. Knowing which stats to emphasize an lead to very successful spread predictions.

NFL Playoff Totals over/under

In the regular season, even very strong teams sometimes let down their guard. In the playoffs, letdowns rarely happen. This is no surprise. Players and coaches understand that if they lose this game, they go home. So, the stronger teams play up to their true ability. The favorites in the NFL don’t often let up at the end of a game to allow a dog a late cover. In fact, in the playoffs teams run up the score. Even if they are up by two touchdowns, the winning team wants to leave NOTHING to chance and will take the opportunity to score another two if they can.

Home Field Advantage

It is widely recognized that home field advantage in the NFL is important. Regular season spreads are routinely adjusted by about 2.5 to 3.5 points in favor of the home team. But in the playoffs, home field advantage cannot be overstated. Home squads don't have to travel after a long brutal season. The home field energy from the crowd is especially intense in January. Weather plays a big role And, the better team usually "earned" home field advantage by playing awesome football for 16 weeks. The lines makers typically cannot adjust the spread enough to account for these factors. Over the past eight seasons, home teams have covered the spread nearly 64% of the time! Home underdogs do even better. Home dogs are very rare.

The Bottom Line

In the playoffs, we have reliable data from 16 games worth of stats to evaluate. As stated earlier, the best teams step up in January and there are fewer situational letdowns and surprises. The teams with the better team in key statistical areas usually win. Knowing which stats to emphasize an lead to very successful spread predictions.

NFL Playoff Odds

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