The 2018 Kentucky Derby is on May 5. I’ve handicapped every race on the Kentucky Derby Card. The following three races have made my Kentucky Derby Smart Picks list.
The list starts with Race 7, the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile. Can chalk La Coronel put a beat down on her competition in the Distaff Turf Mile? Another race I like is Race 10, the Pat Day Mile. Which 4/1 chalk, National Flag or Mask, takes the Pat Day Mile on Saturday? The final race that made my smart picks list is the biggest race of the day, Race 12, the Kentucky Derby. Is Justify the winner at 3/1 odds?
2018 Kentucky Derby Smart Picks
Race 7 – Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
Both La Coronel at 3/1 and Dream Awhile 7/2 should get some love. Even Madame Dancealot at 5/1 will garner some action. I don’t like any of those horses. To me, Res Ipsa, at 10/1 on the morning line is a standout. She should have no trouble running by La Coronel and Dream Awhile. Madame Dancealot could get into the exacta. Heck, they all could get into the exacta.
That’s why all I’m doing is playing a big win bet on Res Ipsa at the overlay odds.
$40 to win on 7-Res Ipsa
Race 10 – Grade 3 Pat Day Mile
National Flag is a good horse. He’s not as good of a horse as Mask, though. Mask should have this field over a barrel. The best way to make money is to put a huge win bet on Mask and then put him on top of some crazy longshots in an exacta. Who are the crazy longshots I like? Mississippi is 10/1. Smart Remark is 20/1. Seahenge is 15/1 and Sporting Chance is 8/1
$50 to win on Mask
$4 Exacta 8-Mask w/5-Mississippi, 6-Smart Remark, 10-Seahenge, 11-Sporting Chance
Race 12 – Grade 1 Kentucky Derby
To me, Mendelssohn is an absolute stand out. He should have no trouble either clearing this field or running right off the front-runners. I believe he wins the Derby by no less than 2 lengths. With that being written I feel confident playing a $4 trifecta with Mendelssohn over Justify, Bolt d’Oro, Audible, and then over Justify, Bolt d’Oro, Audible, Magnum Moon, Hofburg, Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Flameaway.
I’m also putting a big win bet on Mendelssohn.
$50 to win on Mendelssohn
14-Mendelssohn w/5-Audible, 7-Justify, 11-Bolt d’Oro w/4-Flameaway, 5-Audible, 6-Good Magic, 7-Justify, 9-Hofburg, 11-Bolt d’Oro, 16-Magnum Moon, 18-Vino Rosso