This Friday, the New York Mets head to Philadelphia to battle the Phillies. That’s where my MLB Free Picks for the week begins. Will the Phillies hold off the Mets? On Saturday, Washington battles Arizona at Chase Field. Can Arizona beat one of Washington’s top pitchers? Sunday’s free pick has Toronto battling it out against the Boston Red Sox. Who takes it when the Blue Jays take on the Red Sox?

MLB Free Picks May 7-13

New York Mets at Philadelphia
When:  Friday, May 11 at 7:05 pm ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Analysis: The Mets list Steven Matz as their Friday starter. Matz has a decent 4.23 ERA. His WHIP is a good 1.16. The problem is that Matz’s record is a terrible 1 and 4. Without run support he’s doomed.
He’s especially doomed on Friday because the Phillies will counter Matz with the terrific Jake Arrieta. Arrieta hasn’t lost a beat moving from Chicago to Philadelphia. His 3 and 1 record, 3.49 ERA, and 1.16 WHIP are all great.

The Mets bat .254 against Arrieta. I don’t believe that will be good enough.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Washington at Arizona
When:  Saturday, May 12 at 4:05 pm ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Analysis: Washington starts Stephen Strasburg on May 12. Strasburg has a 3 and 3 record. His ERA is a decent 3.47 while his WHIP is a great 1.05. Strasburg allows the D’Backs to bat a decent .263 against him.

Can the D’Backs pull off the home upset? To do that, their listed starter, Matt Koch, must pitch well. Koch might. He’s got a nice 2.37 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The Nats have only faced Koch 8 times. That’s not enough at-bats to determine how well Koch pitches on Saturday.

One thing that could determine how well Koch pitches is the fact that he’s done well at Chase Field. Most pitchers have trouble keeping the bases clear at Chase Field. Koch has pitched well enough for a 1-4 AZ loss, which wasn’t his fault, and a 4 to 3 AZ victory.

I think the D’Backs are the play.

Pick: Arizona

Boston at Toronto
When:  Sunday, May 13 at 8:00 pm ET
Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, CA

Analysis: The Boston Red Sox start Drew Pomeranz on Sunday. Pomeranz has a 6.40 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. Toronto bats .217 versus Pomeranz, though. He’s allowed 18 hits from 83 at-bats.

The reason that’s important is because Pomeranz and the Red Sox face Toronto ace Marcus Stroman on May 13. Stroman is 0 and 4 with a 7.52 ERA. His WHIP is 1.64.

The Red Sox should punish Stroman on Sunday. I don’t see any way Boston doesn’t beat Stroman and the Blue Jays by at least 2 runs on May 13.

Pick: Boston