My NFL Week 13 upset picks revolve around teams that could get it done not only against the spread but also on the money line. Why do I think Houston beats AFC South-leading Tennessee as a TD and extra point road dog? How come I believe Minnesota is the play as a +3-road dog versus the hot Atlanta Falcons? Do I really think Seattle does enough to possibly add a second loss to Philadelphia’s stunning straight up record?

NFL Week 13 Upset Picks

Houston at Tennessee
When:  Sunday, Dec. 3 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Odds: Houston +7

Analysis: In NFL Week 13,Houston travels to Tennessee to battle the Titans.  Tennessee’s 7 and 4 straight up record has them tied with Jacksonville atop the AFC South Standings. The Titans are a decent team.

They’re not a great team, though. Tennessee is prone to playing down to its competition. This is just a fact because Tennessee is only 2-2-1 against the spread in home games.  Still, Houston must take advantage, right?

Not counting Houston’s Monday night battle versus Baltimore, the Texans have gone 6 and 4 against the spread this season. Houston is 3 and 1 ATS on the road this season. 7 points are just too many to give up.

Pick: Houston

Minnesota at Atlanta
When:  Sunday, Dec. 3 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Odds:  Minnesota +3

Analysis: On the surface, it sure appears as if the Atlanta Falcons will cover as a -3-home favorite in Week 13. The Falcons have gone 3 and 0 straight up and against the spread. A closer look reveals that Atlanta might have some trouble versus the Vikings in this one, though.

Atlanta’s 27 to 7 win over Dallas occurred versus a Boys’ team without RB Ezekiel Elliott and LB Sean Lee. Atlanta beat Seattle 34 to 31 even though the Falcons only rushed for 89 yards and passed for 190. Atlanta’s 34 to 20 win over Tampa Bay happened versus, well, Tampa Bay.

Minnesota might be the second-best team in the NFC after the Philadelphia Eagles. The Vikings should easily hand a loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

Pick: Minnesota

Philadelphia at Seattle
When:  Sunday, Dec. 3 at 8:30 pm ET
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA
Odds: Seattle +6

Analysis: Philadelphia heads to Seattle to battle the Seahawks in a game where Seattle was the more than 7-point favorite before the season started. That’s how much things have changed this season.

The 8 to 1 preseason Super Bowl shot, the Seahawks, are home dogs to the 40 to 1 preseason Super Bowl shot, the Philadelphia Eagles. I still say that Philly, although impressive, has beaten up on some bad teams this season.

It’s make or break time for the Seahawks. I believe they pull a make. I think Seattle does enough on defense to confuse Carson Wentz. I like Seattle to beat Philly straight up on Dec. 3.

Pick: Seattle